A descriptive spatial analysis of bovine tuberculosis in intensively controlled cattle farms in New Zealand

We describe the temporal and geographical distribution of confirmed cases of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in a population of cattle in the south-east of the North Island of New Zealand. Data were derived from routine TB testing conducted between 1980 and 2003 and included details for 69 farms. Four six-year periods were defined to coincide with changes in depopulation strategies against the wildlife TB reservoir, the brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula. For the periods 1980 to 1985 and 1986 to 1991 the median annual incidence rate of TB was 0.4 and 4.7 cases per 1000 cattle-years at risk, respectively. For the period 1992 to 2003 the median annual incidence rate of TB decreased to 1.8 cases per 1000 cattle-years at risk, coincident with the use of poisoning to control possums in the surrounding forest park (a major possum habitat area). We identified clusters of TB cases adjacent to the forest park and found no evidence of spatio-temporal interaction of TB risk among farms. Our findings support the hypothesis that possums living in the forest park are a source of bovine TB in this area and that farm-to-farm spread of disease was not an important infection mechanism

Assessing the potential of plains zebra to maintain African horse sickness in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations. Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic. Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses

Risk factors associated with Rift Valley fever epidemics in South Africa in 2008-11.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic and vector-borne disease, mainly present in Africa, which represents a threat to human health, animal health and production. South Africa has experienced three major RVF epidemics (1950-51, 1973-75 and 2008-11). Due to data scarcity, no previous study has quantified risk factors associated with RVF epidemics in animals in South Africa. Using the 2008-11 epidemic datasets, a retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify and quantify spatial and temporal environmental factors associated with RVF incidence. Cox regressions with a Besag model to account for the spatial effects were fitted to the data. Coefficients were estimated by Bayesian inference using integrated nested Laplace approximation. An increase in vegetation density was the most important risk factor until 2010. In 2010, increased temperature was the major risk factor. In 2011, after the large 2010 epidemic wave, these associations were reversed, potentially confounded by immunity in animals, probably resulting from earlier infection and vaccination. Both vegetation density and temperature should be considered together in the development of risk management strategies. However, the crucial need for improved access to data on population at risk, animal movements and vaccine use is highlighted to improve model predictions

Small-scale pig farmers’ behavior, silent release of African swine fever virus and consequences for disease spread

The expanding distribution of African swine fever (ASF) is threatening the pig industry worldwide. Most outbreaks occur in backyard and small-scale herds, where poor farmers often attempt to limit the disease’s economic consequences by the emergency sale of their pigs. The risk of African swine fever virus (ASFV) release via this emergency sale was investigated. Simulation modeling was used to study ASFV transmission in backyard and small-scale farms as well as the emergency sale of pigs, and the potential impact of improving farmers and traders’ clinical diagnosis ability–its timeliness and/or accuracy–was assessed. The risk of ASFV release was shown to be high, and improving farmers’ clinical diagnosis ability does not appear sufficient to effectively reduce this risk. Estimates obtained also showed that the distribution of herd size within the backyard and small-scale sectors influences the relative contribution of these farms to the risk of release of infected pigs. These findings can inform surveillance and control programs

Risk-based evidence for animal health policy

No abstract available

The performance of approximations of farm contiguity compared to contiguity defined using detailed geographical information in two sample areas in Scotland: implications for foot-and-mouth disease modelling

BACKGROUND: When modelling infectious diseases, accurately capturing the pattern of dissemination through space is key to providing optimal recommendations for control. Mathematical models of disease spread in livestock, such as for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), have done this by incorporating a transmission kernel which describes the decay in transmission rate with increasing Euclidean distance from an infected premises (IP). However, this assumes a homogenous landscape, and is based on the distance between point locations of farms. Indeed, underlying the spatial pattern of spread are the contact networks involved in transmission. Accordingly, area-weighted tessellation around farm point locations has been used to approximate field-contiguity and simulate the effect of contiguous premises (CP) culling for FMD. Here, geographic data were used to determine contiguity based on distance between premises’ fields and presence of landscape features for two sample areas in Scotland. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) were calculated to determine how point distance measures and area-weighted tessellation compared to the ‘gold standard’ of the map-based measures in identifying CPs. In addition, the mean degree and density of the different contact networks were calculated. RESULTS: Utilising point distances <1 km and <5 km as a measure for contiguity resulted in poor discrimination between map-based CPs/non-CPs (TSS 0.279-0.344 and 0.385-0.400, respectively). Point distance <1 km missed a high proportion of map-based CPs; <5 km point distance picked up a high proportion of map-based non-CPs as CPs. Area-weighted tessellation performed best, with reasonable discrimination between map-based CPs/non-CPs (TSS 0.617-0.737) and comparable mean degree and density. Landscape features altered network properties considerably when taken into account. CONCLUSION: The farming landscape is not homogeneous. Basing contiguity on geographic locations of field boundaries and including landscape features known to affect transmission into FMD models are likely to improve individual farm-level accuracy of spatial predictions in the event of future outbreaks. If a substantial proportion of FMD transmission events are by contiguous spread, and CPs should be assigned an elevated relative transmission rate, the shape of the kernel could be significantly altered since ability to discriminate between map-based CPs and non-CPs is different over different Euclidean distances

Mapping brucellosis risk in communities in the Republic of Armenia

Abstract. We describe the geographical patterns and identified factors associated with serological evidence of brucellosis in ruminants in Armenian communities during 2006 and 2007. The data comprised the two first complete years of the current national test-and-slaughter control programme for cattle, sheep and goats. Overall, 29 % and 21 % of the 858 communities involved in this study reported brucellosis in their respective cattle and small ruminant populations. The national brucellosis control data showed a widespread and uneven distribution of brucellosis throughout the Republic of Armenia for both cattle and small ruminants. The geographical areas of greater risk of communities having seropositive animals were different for cattle and small ruminant populations but most of the associated factors were similar. Several areas where the likelihood of disease occurrence was predicted poorly by the statistical models were also identified. These latter findings are indicative of either less than perfect testing and reporting procedures or unexplained epidemiological factors operating in those particular areas. The analyses provided valuable insights into understanding the brucellosis epidemiology at the community level which operates in small ruminant and cattle populations, and identified priority areas for implementing targeted risk-based surveillance and disease control interventions. Keywords: brucellosis, ruminants, epidemiology, risk mapping, Republic of Armenia